I´m an early riser, my productive time is in the morning.
i think tastes and value reveal personality, so i´ll consider them more truthful than just blah blah blah.
i enjoy all types of music, i like good increscendos ending into climax but i can really enjoy moonlight sonata of Beethoven. My four season favourite is "Winter" by far.
i like russian literature like dostoiesvky and chejov but i enjoy too masters of technic as borges or cortazar or flower of consciusness as Arlt.
i like every food, i enjoy the view, the taste and the texture.
I tend to be intense and authentic.
I believe in freedom and personal responsability.
I do not use people and do not like being used.
i believe that all suffering is self imposed and that men true moral end is the pursue of his happiness.
I cannot divorce who i am from what are my values cause i try to live according to them and that my thought and actions are a reflection.
i do not believe that the body is the prison of the soul and that paradise is given in the afterlife or that abuses can be forgiven and erase by the judgement of one who did not suffer the abuse who´s forgivement is asked for.
i love life, to breath, run, create and think. i believe that all starts with an idea, a thougnt.
viernes, 27 de marzo de 2009
martes, 17 de marzo de 2009
DE LA CONDENA DE MUCHOS Y EL APROVECHAMIENTO DE POCOS
Que sentimientos lo invadieron al ver esa foto?
Me imagino que ternura y felicidad si es como la mayoria de las personas.
Cuando va a ver alguna pelicula no le pasa que ud quiere bien adentro suyo que la historia termine bien, que el malo muera o sea derrotado, la justicia triunfe, etc?
Si es asi, tambien es como la mayoria de nosotros.
Ahora, porque traigo esto:
La mayoria de las personas esta constituida de una manera que se siente bien, o feliz si ayuda a otra persona o ve feliz a otra persona. Tambien cuenta con un sentido de justicia natural y tiene una tendencia a creer que el resto de la gente piensa como el (esto es parte deseo y parte necesidad, la necesidad surge de que debemos creer que este mundo es vivible y pacifico).
OK, por un lado tenemos esto que es la mayoria que pese a que entra en peleas por errores de la comunicacion, proteccion del ego,,diferencia de necesidades, etc,,mas o menos podemos catalogarla como ser humano promedio.
Cual es el problema y la tragedia-
El problema y la tragedia consiste en que esa necesidad de creer en la bondad del otro nos ciega a veces de la realidad y quedamos a merced de quien busca aprovecharse de esa necesidad tan fuerte de creer. Es por eso que las estafas ya sean de tipo comercial, sentimental o familiar se suceden sin interrupcion y con total proposito de parte del aprovechador.
Es un problema profundo y que parte de nuestra propia constitucion, de como estamos armados como personas. Permearse de una cuota de cinismo y de duda es, lastimosamente una armadura que debemos ponernos para evitar estos acontecimientos.
No creo que esto cambia jamas, si cambia en serio es porque cambio radicalmente el mundo y el comun de las personas no va a esperar lo mejor de la vida y del projimo sino lo peor y el mundo se va a convertir en un lugar verdaderamente espantoso.
LA LUCHA POR LA DIGNIDAD
Es increible admitirlo pero ahora cuando salgo a la calle, a cualquier hora del dia se que estoy indefenso y que en cualquier barrio y en cualquier lugar puedo seer victima de un robo o de violencia que pone en riesgo mi vida. Saber eso me pone incomodo, en un estres constante sabiendo que en cualquier momento mi plata y mi integridad fisica pueden ser arrebatadas sin remedio ni proteccion. Me acuerdo que hace unos años estos nefastos iniciaron una campaña de desarme...para que no nos quede como defendernos. Si no quieren pagar policias...ok...hagan cursos de tiro masivos, cursos de uso de los taser, de las pistolas que tiran electrodos. En este momento, estamos solos y a nuestro propio cuidado. La droga, la corrupcion y la falta de referentes morales en la sociedad junto con el bombardeo televisivo de estrellas y la busqueda de la gratificacion instantanea, de la sensacion, del alcohol,,,la falta de espiritualidad y de autoconciencia y autoanalisis,,,,todo eso nos deja como ahora,,,en el caos de la violencia y el descontrol. Hasta cuando vamos a dejar que nos saquen lo que es nuestro por derecho,,,que nos ganamos con nuestro trabajo? Hasta cuando el temor nos va a gobernar y vamos a seguir siendo las "victimas" de la inseguridad? Años pasan y la situacion no cambia, la dirigencia actual no va a resolver el problema porque simplemente no le preocupa, le es lo mismo y se rie de los reclamos mientras los ve x tv.
Will Britain go bankrupt?
Posteo un articulo que encontre en Moneyweek.
Will Britain go bankrupt?
By Associate Editor David Stevenson Mar 13, 2009
Britain: on the brink of bankruptcy
And we thought we were bearish.
A research report caused a bit of a frisson in the UK press yesterday. Apparently, British house prices could fall by as much as a further 55%. Oh, and there's a real risk that the country could go bust on top as well.
This isn't a set of forecasts from some fringe pressure group. It's a report from Numis Securities, a leading firm of analysts.
But all's not yet lost. There's still a solution, says Numis. Trouble is, it's probably too painful to have any chance of happening...
House prices could fall another 55%
As our own Dominic Frisby pointed out earlier this week, the housing bust doesn't look anywhere near over (UK house prices will plummet: look at this scary chart). That almost goes without saying. But Numis Securities reckons that house prices could fall by as much as another 55%.
How do they work that out? Well, despite the 20% or so fall in house prices from the peak, the UK house price to earnings ratio is still around 4.8. That's still way out of line with the long-run trend, of between 3.5 and 4 times. That means house prices sill have to fall another 17-39% before they reach their "fair value".
A fall of that degree would be incredibly nasty - and quite likely to happen, too. After all, yesterday's figures on mortgage approvals (i.e. loans granted to people to buy houses), were down 50% year-on-year to a record low in January, pointing to more declines in store. Yet that's not the full story.
When a bubble pops, it doesn't stop at fair value. Just as prices rocket above the norm on the way up, so they plunge way below the average on the way down. And if they over-correct to the same extent as in the 1990s (which remember, was a far less drastic recession) then prices "could fall 40-55% from current levels".
That's pretty scary, though not way out of line with what our own regular columnist, James Ferguson is expecting (see James's latest take on the UK and US housing markets: Worse to come for property markets on both sides of the Atlantic).
Could Britain go bankrupt?
But even more worrying than the state of the British housing market, is the overall state of the nation's finances. Personal debt in the UK, at nearly £1.5trillion, has overtaken annual GDP – in other words, we owe more than we produce in a single year. On top of this, company borrowings add nearly another £2 trillion to the debt pile.
But the real 'bete noire' is what the government is racking up. Numis has totted up the numbers and comes to a terrifying conclusion: underlying public debt next year will reach a staggering 282% of annual GDP.
The firm's estimate of unfunded public sector pension liabilities - that's money that the government will have to pay out in pensions but which it doesn't actually have right now - comes to almost £3trn. Add it all together, and Britain's total debt mountain will stand at over 500% of GDP by 2010.
To put this figure in context, it's far bigger than at any point in our history, including wartime. And this is our fiscal position as we go into possibly the biggest recession in living memory. It's like owing more than five times your gross income - just before you lose your job.
So what does this mean? Well, for the government, it means having to sell lots more gilts to raise funds. But that will get much tougher as the debt mountain continues to grow, which means the pound will keep falling as international faith in Britain's creditworthiness steadily drops. In turn, that will push long-term interest rates ever higher to cajole foreign investors to part with their cash. Conventional gilt prices will tumble.
This could turn into a vicious downward spiral. Eventually the UK will be unable to fund itself - and will just go bankrupt. Yes, we could print oodles more money to 'pay' the government's bills. But that road just leads to hyper-inflation, like pre-revolutionary France in 1789, the 1923 Weimar Republic - and the tragedy that is Zimbabwe today.
This problem should easily be solved - but that won't happen
So is there any hope for Britain at all? Well, in fact, "the problem looks surprisingly easy to resolve", says Numis.
'Discretionary' - i.e. not absolutely essential - spending makes up almost 45% of total household outflows. So all we have to do is cut this back to the levels of the 1992 recession - stop borrowing more money and save the stuff instead - and hey presto! - problem solved.
Of course, there's a big catch. It would take more than 10 years of this sort of medicine being administered to consumers to result in a cure. And too many people have got too used to the 'must-have-it-now' mentality to have the patience to wait until they've saved up enough to buy what they want.
Further, Gordon Brown and his colleagues - and their successors, too - would have to keep their hands in their pockets for years, and not keep splashing out even more money they haven't got on a whole procession of bailouts.
Will that happen? Fat chance. The temptation for a government trying to get re-elected to keep borrowing and spending far too much will prove much too great. What's more, there's another twist. As Fraser Nelson points out in The Spectator, our Gordon seems to have sussed out how to "tweak banking regulations to buy his crappy debt, and thereby divert the nation's savings into the Treasury's coffers".
Having been sellers of gilts for 10 years, British banks, "gripped by a mysterious sense of patriotism" have bought a net £30bn-worth in the last three months – the most since data started in 1997. While there's still some cash left in the banks' vaults, expect the government to grab what it can.
It all means that sterling assets – from houses to conventional gilts to stocks exposed mainly to the domestic economy (Are shares now yesterday's story?) – will keep crumbling.
We'll be talking about how to diversify your exposure away from sterling assets in coming issues of MoneyWeek. But as we mentioned yesterday, a good start is to buy some gold – you can find out more about it here.
Will Britain go bankrupt?
By Associate Editor David Stevenson Mar 13, 2009
Britain: on the brink of bankruptcy
And we thought we were bearish.
A research report caused a bit of a frisson in the UK press yesterday. Apparently, British house prices could fall by as much as a further 55%. Oh, and there's a real risk that the country could go bust on top as well.
This isn't a set of forecasts from some fringe pressure group. It's a report from Numis Securities, a leading firm of analysts.
But all's not yet lost. There's still a solution, says Numis. Trouble is, it's probably too painful to have any chance of happening...
House prices could fall another 55%
As our own Dominic Frisby pointed out earlier this week, the housing bust doesn't look anywhere near over (UK house prices will plummet: look at this scary chart). That almost goes without saying. But Numis Securities reckons that house prices could fall by as much as another 55%.
How do they work that out? Well, despite the 20% or so fall in house prices from the peak, the UK house price to earnings ratio is still around 4.8. That's still way out of line with the long-run trend, of between 3.5 and 4 times. That means house prices sill have to fall another 17-39% before they reach their "fair value".
A fall of that degree would be incredibly nasty - and quite likely to happen, too. After all, yesterday's figures on mortgage approvals (i.e. loans granted to people to buy houses), were down 50% year-on-year to a record low in January, pointing to more declines in store. Yet that's not the full story.
When a bubble pops, it doesn't stop at fair value. Just as prices rocket above the norm on the way up, so they plunge way below the average on the way down. And if they over-correct to the same extent as in the 1990s (which remember, was a far less drastic recession) then prices "could fall 40-55% from current levels".
That's pretty scary, though not way out of line with what our own regular columnist, James Ferguson is expecting (see James's latest take on the UK and US housing markets: Worse to come for property markets on both sides of the Atlantic).
Could Britain go bankrupt?
But even more worrying than the state of the British housing market, is the overall state of the nation's finances. Personal debt in the UK, at nearly £1.5trillion, has overtaken annual GDP – in other words, we owe more than we produce in a single year. On top of this, company borrowings add nearly another £2 trillion to the debt pile.
But the real 'bete noire' is what the government is racking up. Numis has totted up the numbers and comes to a terrifying conclusion: underlying public debt next year will reach a staggering 282% of annual GDP.
The firm's estimate of unfunded public sector pension liabilities - that's money that the government will have to pay out in pensions but which it doesn't actually have right now - comes to almost £3trn. Add it all together, and Britain's total debt mountain will stand at over 500% of GDP by 2010.
To put this figure in context, it's far bigger than at any point in our history, including wartime. And this is our fiscal position as we go into possibly the biggest recession in living memory. It's like owing more than five times your gross income - just before you lose your job.
So what does this mean? Well, for the government, it means having to sell lots more gilts to raise funds. But that will get much tougher as the debt mountain continues to grow, which means the pound will keep falling as international faith in Britain's creditworthiness steadily drops. In turn, that will push long-term interest rates ever higher to cajole foreign investors to part with their cash. Conventional gilt prices will tumble.
This could turn into a vicious downward spiral. Eventually the UK will be unable to fund itself - and will just go bankrupt. Yes, we could print oodles more money to 'pay' the government's bills. But that road just leads to hyper-inflation, like pre-revolutionary France in 1789, the 1923 Weimar Republic - and the tragedy that is Zimbabwe today.
This problem should easily be solved - but that won't happen
So is there any hope for Britain at all? Well, in fact, "the problem looks surprisingly easy to resolve", says Numis.
'Discretionary' - i.e. not absolutely essential - spending makes up almost 45% of total household outflows. So all we have to do is cut this back to the levels of the 1992 recession - stop borrowing more money and save the stuff instead - and hey presto! - problem solved.
Of course, there's a big catch. It would take more than 10 years of this sort of medicine being administered to consumers to result in a cure. And too many people have got too used to the 'must-have-it-now' mentality to have the patience to wait until they've saved up enough to buy what they want.
Further, Gordon Brown and his colleagues - and their successors, too - would have to keep their hands in their pockets for years, and not keep splashing out even more money they haven't got on a whole procession of bailouts.
Will that happen? Fat chance. The temptation for a government trying to get re-elected to keep borrowing and spending far too much will prove much too great. What's more, there's another twist. As Fraser Nelson points out in The Spectator, our Gordon seems to have sussed out how to "tweak banking regulations to buy his crappy debt, and thereby divert the nation's savings into the Treasury's coffers".
Having been sellers of gilts for 10 years, British banks, "gripped by a mysterious sense of patriotism" have bought a net £30bn-worth in the last three months – the most since data started in 1997. While there's still some cash left in the banks' vaults, expect the government to grab what it can.
It all means that sterling assets – from houses to conventional gilts to stocks exposed mainly to the domestic economy (Are shares now yesterday's story?) – will keep crumbling.
We'll be talking about how to diversify your exposure away from sterling assets in coming issues of MoneyWeek. But as we mentioned yesterday, a good start is to buy some gold – you can find out more about it here.
domingo, 15 de marzo de 2009
Reviviendo
Estuvo re muerto el blog, vamos a hacerlo a andar que me parece volvieron esos famosos jugos creativos.
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